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A topic that has stayed rent-free in headlines and at the back of our minds has been who will end up in the prized Red Bull seat. From rumors about Daniel Riccardo's return being more than just an Alpha Tauri move and of an ultimatum for Perez to Christen Horner stating Yuki Tsunoda wouldn’t be in the car if he didn’t have a chance at a seat. Throw in Liam Lawson's superstar performance into the mix and there’s some real questions about Red Bull's second seat. While the way seats are picked aren’t often very straight forward when taking a look at the way these drivers drive we can get a better sense of who would do best in the seat.
The baseline for this decision should and almost certainly will come from the man most successful in the Red Bull, Max Verstappen. While many attribute the absolute dominance of Verstappen to only the car, the truth is his driving style, which caters so nicely to the RB19. Red Bull's car has a few unique quirks, other than being an absolute rocket in terms of speed, the way the car is set up creates a stiffer back of the car that doesn’t give much wiggle in the back end. This can make it tricky in the turns for some but actually provides an advantage for Verstappen.
The spot where a driver’s style tends to pop up strongest is in head to head battles and of course turns. There haven’t been many head to head battles recently however tracks have a lot of turns which perfectly highlight how Verstappen is able to dominate. In the corners Verstappen tends to brake very late and lean into something known as oversteer. He does this by turning the car while still accelerating so when the braking is engaged the car is already turning, this allows for a much tighter corner that he can accelerate out of faster. With most formula one cars, oversteer leads to a lot of crashes as the back of the car floats too far over placing the driver in an undesirable situation losing time and risking the car. However the combination of Verstappen's incredible car control paired with Red Bull's looser back end allows Verstappen to gain all the quick corner benefits without the crash risks.
This driving style is unreplicated anywhere else on the current grid so there’s really no perfect person for the seat. Out of the people available now for the 2024 spot the most likely is Sergio “Checo” Perez, his contract ends after the 2024 season and while it is a possibility to see an early release, barring extreme circumstances, it’s not likely. Perez has admitted in interviews that the car has given him some trouble and he has had a hard time adapting to it.
Checo is often known as the King of street circuits and a master of defense however we haven’t been able to see too much of this this season. When looking at the driving style of Perez the picture of why the car has been so tricky begins to form. Perez likes to take his corners fast and loose, working to follow that optimal race line when it comes to his master defending that requires a backend that stays in place and works the way he wants. The loose back end creates a lot of issues with this driving style issues we can see even just watching the race. In corners the wiggle pushes him just a little too wide and with defense his later braking doesn’t matter as much as he needs to reposition the car ever so slightly. All of this being said, we've seen Perez, especially in this last stretch, really start to get a feel for the car and he’ll go into future seasons with that as an advantage.
In the odd event Red Bull decides to terminate Perez’s contract early, which has been heavily rumored, the internet consensus for next pick is Daniel Ricciardo. The driver who didn’t even race a whole season this year already has more points than both the driver he replaced and the one who briefly replaced him. Ricciardo has been in many cars over the years but has maintained a relatively unexciting style. Ricciardo like Verstappen tends to brake later in the corners, unlike Verstappen however we don’t see a pattern of the same early acceleration. In an analysis, presented by Amazon, of braking in corners among the top drivers in Abu Dhabi FP2 Ricciardo was on par with the fastest if not later with the braking however he accelerated consistently later. In a car like RB19 Riccardo’s late braking and late accelerating will only worsen as his car control simply isn’t on the same level as Verstappen. Taking time with acceleration will only get worse with repositioning the loose back end. Looking from a tactical standpoint, keeping Perez over Ricciardo at least for 2024 is a stronger move.
The discussion online of the second seat has largely stayed between the two previously mentioned drivers however they aren’t the only eligible people. Christen Horner stated in an interview earlier this season that Yuki Tsunoda wouldn’t be in the car if he didn’t have a shot at Red Bull. Tsunoda who has scored the bulk of Alpha Tauri’s points would be interesting to see in the Red Bull as he hasn’t really had any experience driving a car with real pace. Alpha Tauri shares an engine and some other car concepts with Red Bull so that would give Tsunoda an advantage going in but based on this and previous seasons it doesn’t look like he has the car control needed to make him more competitive than Perez, which is where anyone needs to be if they want that seat.
The last driver in the Red Bull family is Liam Lawson, the not yet rookie made an absolute star debut and had some incredible moments including scoring his first points and knocking superstar Verstappen out in Q2 for the first time this season. While Lawson has shown some absolute pace Red Bull has thankfully learned their lesson on throwing rookies in their car. The culture at the team is very much swim or get out and this just doesn’t work with younger drivers, while Lawson definitely has a strong future with any team 2024 is not in the cards for him.
No team has ever made a seat choice solely based on tactical potential, there’s a lot of moving parts however through all of them it’s highly unlikely Perez will lose his seat before at very least halfway through the 2024 season. Perez isn’t competitive enough to make it past 2024 with the team and based on how teams develop he might not even be competitive enough to finish the season. His saving grace now is the fact that he has experience and similar issues to his biggest competition meaning risking a PR nightmare isn’t worth it. F1 is a game of many faces and right now Red Bull has to weigh out tactics, wins, and press to make their choice. With so much in the air in 2024 it’s not even worth it to speculate at this point but one thing is all but certain Perez will and should, from a tactical point at least, keep his job.
